CHINA ECONOMY: CRITICAL BATTLES AHEAD

Charles Hutzler, Lucy Hornby, Zhu Ning
Tuesday, March 13, 1 pm | 60 RMB


China’s economic expansion is predicted to slow to 6.5 percent this year, the slowest pace since 1990, as policymakers look to switch from high-speed to high-quality growth. While the growth would still be the envy of most nations, debt currently stands at US$30 trillion, about 259 percent of GDP, and that percentage is expected to rise to 327 percent by 2020. The leaders say they are currently fighting three critical battles: A crackdown on domestic debt risk, alleviating poverty, and getting on top of pollution, all of which will impact growth to some extent in the coming years. Accurate analysis is complicated by the fact that fudged numbers and creative accounting still rear their heads, now and then. Add to the mix a simmering trade dispute with the US, the prospect of higher interest rates, and a noisy and occasionally anti-social neighbor in North Korea, and the road ahead seems far from smooth. To discuss these issues and potential scenarios moving forward, join Charles Hutzler (Wall Street Journal), Lucy Hornby (Financial Times), and Zhu Ning, author of China’s Guaranteed Bubble..

Lucy Hornby is deputy bureau chief for the Financial Times in Beijing. She previously covered China for Reuters from Shanghai and Beijing, and has reported from all of China’s provinces and regions (except Macau). Prior to that, she reported on Latin America for Energy Intelligence from New York and on Asian energy markets for Dow Jones Newswires from Singapore. Lucy grew up in New Jersey and graduated from Princeton University. She first moved to China in 1995, when she taught for Princeton in Asia in Wuhan, surviving the chills of the Yangtze Valley winter. She speaks Mandarin, French and Spanish.